Free Pick | MLB | Friday | July 21

Current runs from Nelly’s Baseball:

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5-1 in our last six American League picks

9-4 in our last 13 National League picks

17-10 in our last 27 Interleague picks

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#911 Baltimore Orioles (Bradish) +130 over Tampa Bay Rays (Eflin) 5:40 PM CT
The Orioles won in extra-innings 4-3 yesterday, now sitting alone on top of the AL East by a game, a stunning feat considering the historic first month for the Rays. The season scoring numbers are dramatically stronger for Tampa Bay, but Baltimore is 29-17 on the road and Zach Eflin has struggled in his recent run of starts with a 4.66 ERA in his past seven outings, including four losses. Eflin has allowed at least two runs in all those games and that stretch included favorable opportunities facing Oakland and the Royals twice. Baltimore is 4-2 in the season series and Kyle Bradish can make a case for being the top starting option for the Orioles. He owns a 3.05 ERA in 17 starts and has been dominant in the last month with a six-start run since mid-June featuring a 1.41 ERA, including a win at Tampa Bay. The Rays are on a 3-12 run in July for a stunning reversal of the early season results and the offense has topped four runs in only three of those 15 games. Tampa Bay pitching has allowed 30 runs since the All-Star break even with three games vs. the Royals as the bullpen concerns are growing with a 5.40 relief ERA in the past five games. In the past 10 games vs. right-handers Baltimore is averaging 5.3 runs per nine compared to 3.6 for the Rays and while this race should be competitive all season, Baltimore has the upper hand right now.