Free Pick | MLB | Sunday | May 4

Nelly’s won with a shutout in MLB action yesterday, now 7-1 in our last eight (7-0 if you list pitchers) while posting an amazing start overall to the 2025 season as we also had a 9-0 streak in April!

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#922 Toronto Blue Jays (Francis) -110 over Cleveland Guardians (Bibee) 12:37 PM CT

It has felt like Tanner Bibee has pitched over his head in an impressive first two seasons with the Guardians. His numbers are leveling out so far six starts into 2025, with a 4.36 ERA and a 6.45 FIP while his K/9 of 6.8 this season is well below his numbers the past two seasons. He had an extremely low home run rate the past two seasons despite having a career groundball rate below 37 percent but this year he has already allowed nine home runs, including seven in his three road starts. Cleveland had an incredible finish yesterday getting a ninth-inning grand slam from a backup infielder, winning 5-3 in Toronto despite being outhit 8-4. Cleveland still has a losing road record while Toronto is 11-7 at home this season. Emmaneul Clase pitched yesterday, and he hasn’t been his usual self with poor numbers so far this season as the Cleveland bullpen has been far worse than expected in the early returns in 2025. Bowden Francis had a great run in 2024 after being converted to a starting role but so far, he hasn’t had the same success in 2025. Like Bibee, his home run rate has skyrocketed in the early sample size, with 11 home runs allowed. Five of those came in his last start as Francis had allowed three or fewer earned runs in five straight outings before a nightmare showing vs. the Red Sox on Tuesday. He has a quality start in two of his three home outings and Francis should be capable of a bounce-back performance for the Blue Jays to take this series on Sunday. Despite the even series with matching 5-3 results, Toronto has had 21 at-bats with runners in scoring position while Cleveland has had only nine in the past two games.