Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | Aug. 13

Nelly’s won again yesterday for a 6-1 run and another strong August underway!

#901/902 OVER 8 Pittsburgh Pirates (Ashcraft) at Miami Marlins (Phillips) 12:10 PM CT

Braxton Ashcraft has delivered a fine season for the Pirates but there are signs he may be running out of gas now with over 132 innings pitched. His last quality start was on June 24, posting a 6.81 ERA over his last seven starts with a big jump in home runs allowed. Five of those seven starts were on the road, where Ashcraft has been less successful for the season but that is the scenario again today. The Marlins have a lot to play for sitting in the NL wild card race and Miami owns a 38-24 home record this season with four wins in a row on the current home stand. There is a data case that Tyler Phillips has overachieved this season with a weak strikeout rate and a 4.60 FIP next to his 3.47 ERA. Phillips is on a run of six straight starts with two or fewer runs allowed but he hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of those games as the Marlins have protected him. Both teams have appealing recent splits vs. right-handed pitching, including Miami batting .303 with 7.4 runs per nine in the past five games. Pittsburgh’s offense has stalled the past few games, but this is still the fourth best scoring team in MLB for the season, and one of the best ‘over’ teams in MLB for the year as well. Look for both pitchers to be at risk to fall short of their season numbers in today’s early contest in the NL picture.