Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | Aug. 21

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#951 Milwaukee Brewers (Priester) +115 over Chicago Cubs (Imanaga) 1:20 PM CT

There is some fight left in the Cubs with a sweep of the double-header on Tuesday and a narrow win yesterday to take three of four so far in this critical five-game series with the Brewers. Chicago is back within six games of Milwaukee in the division race while sitting in the top position of the wild card picture. Chicago scored four runs on only four hits yesterday for a fortunate win and the bullpen has had a significant workload the past two days, far greater than what Milwaukee’s pitching staff has endured in those three games with the three key relievers that pitched yesterday now all having pitched on two consecutive days. Shota Imanaga has a 4.32 FIP next to his 3.06 ERA and he has been a significant home run risk this season while producing a far worse strikeout rate than his great 2024 campaign. Imanaga has allowed three or more runs in three of his last five starts and the Brewers have five runs against him in just over 10 innings this season. Milwaukee has hit .285 with 6.2 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. left-handed pitching, while 25-13 on the season vs. left-handed starters. The Cubs have a great record vs. right-handers but the recent splits are poor for the lineup, batting .191 with 2.8 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. right-handers, with Kyle Tucker’s absence greatly weakening Chicago’s potential vs. right-handers. The Brewers are 12-6 in Quinn Priester starts this season and 16-7 when he has pitched including an incredible 14-game winning streak in his appearances going back to late May. Milwaukee got through the double-header with limited relief usage as all bullpen options should be available for the Brewers Thursday afternoon. Milwaukee’s momentum has been halted in Chicago this week, but the Brewers are attractively priced in this series finale in a critical spot to get a game back in this rivalry.