Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | Sep. 10

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#903 Tampa Bay Rays (Martinez) +110 over Atlanta Braves (Perez) 11:15 AM CT

The Rays have a difficult remaining schedule as they look to maintain the AL East lead, currently up four games on the Yankees. Tampa Bay has an 11-5 record in the past 16 games, and the lineup has scored at least six runs in six of eight games so far in September. Tampa Bay is 26-14 vs. left-handed starters this season, while posting 5.0 runs per nine in the past five games vs. left-handed pitching. The Braves in contrast are batting .189 with 2.8 runs per nine in the past five games vs. right-handers as the lineup has gone cold this week, held to two or fewer runs in all four losses on the current 1-4 slide the past five games. Atlanta’s bullpen has been in good form lately, but Martin Perez is a risky starting option with a low strikeout rate and a FIP more than a run higher than his 3.25 ERA. Perez had a great run in early August but has now allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts. Nick Martinez has mostly been an average starter in a well-traveled career, but he has delivered a huge season for the Rays and a 3.04 ERA over now 160 innings has some legitimacy. Martinez has far better road splits this season with a 2.15 ERA while he owns strong career numbers vs. the Braves and at Truist Park. The Rays are ultimately 21-6 behind Martinez this season while catching a favorable price in this pairing after outscoring the Braves 14-3 the past two days. The Braves have not lost three consecutive home games all season to keep this selection at a free pick level, but this is not a lineup playing up to its potential right now.