Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | Sep. 8

Nelly’s Baseball is 23-12 in our last 35 picks!

We’ve also hit 60% to start our college football season.

Green Sheet Issue #12 will be out later this week.

#901/902 OVER 8 New York Mets (Manaea) at Miami Marlins (Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

The Mets posted 16 hits and nine runs yesterday in Miami, scoring at least one run in five of the first six innings to counter a big second inning from the Marlins. Nine pitchers threw last night in the series opener and the recent bullpen splits have been marginal on both sides. The Mets are scoring 5.7 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. right-handed pitching and New York has posted 38 runs in the past five games, looking to play spoiler down the stretch with the Mets 19-12 since August 4. Miami has enjoyed a competitive season but now back below .500 and five games out of the final wild card position, the writing may be on the wall for this group. Miami is 43-30 at home and Sandy Alcantara has enjoyed a strong season with great home splits. He has allowed 12 runs and 28 hits in his last four starts however and could be showing some strain as he approaches 200 innings for the season. Sean Manaea hasn’t been able to recapture the strong results he had for the Mets in 2024, facing an abbreviated season last year and lacking consistent success in a variety of roles this season. Manaea has allowed at least four runs in each of his last four starts and he has a 4.89 ERA since the All-Star Break. Miami pitching has allowed five or more runs in seven of the team’s past 10 games while the Mets have allowed at least four runs in six of the past eight games. Neither team has enjoyed a recent off day as both bullpens are strained. Alcantara has been capable of great home starts, and he pitched well in Queens just over a month ago, but the lineups look likely again to have the edge in the second game of this series.