Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | Aug. 19

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#967 Texas Rangers (Kelly) -105 over Kansas City Royals (Lugo) 6:40 PM CT

The Royals held on to a 4-3 win last night to start this series, moving even further past the Rangers in the AL Wild Card race. Texas had an 11-8 edge in hits last night but couldn’t plate the tying run. Kansas City is 17-11 since the All-Star Break and 6-1 in the past seven games but the past three series have come against the Twins, Nationals, and White Sox. Closer Carlos Estevez and top set-up man Lucas Erceg have both pitched on back-to-back days as the Royals are likely to be shorthanded in the late innings tonight. Seth Lugo has a 3.77 ERA and 11 quality starts this season, but his season FIP is 4.88 and he has struggled since the All-Star Break with a whopping 7.42 ERA in just over 30 innings, including allowing eight home runs. Lugo has good home numbers, but he was hit hard against the Nationals on Wednesday at Kauffman Stadium and he has now allowed 10 home runs in his last seven starts and has just one quality start in six outings since the break. Merrill Kelly was added to the Texas rotation as the trade deadline, and he is having a solid season. Despite three difficult draws Kelly has been steady in three starts for the Rangers and now has a 3.09 ERA since July 1 with five quality starts in eight tries. The recent splits for the Texas bullpen are poor but they have faced the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays in the past three series. Kansas City is at the other end of spectrum in offensive potential compared with those teams, sitting with the third fewest home runs in MLB this season. These teams have been going in opposing directions in recent weeks and while it is true that Texas has struggled with a 25-38 road record, the pitching plan for the Royals is suspect Tuesday with Lugo clearly in a rut and the Kansas City bullpen likely to be without its top two late-inning options.