Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | Oct. 4

The MLB postseason is right around the corner – consider joining Nelly’s or Bobby Dalton through the World Series. Nelly’s is on a 12-4 run in our last 16 picks with back-to-back winning weeks. Dalton has turned in NINE straight winning weeks with a 59-28 run since early August.

Free Pick Tuesday: #921/922 OVER 7.5 Toronto Blue Jays (White) at Baltimore Orioles (Baumann) 6:05 PM CT

Yesterday’s game was called early with Toronto leading 5-1 with the bases loaded as the Blue Jays had 10 hits in the incomplete game, scoring five runs even while going just 2-9 with runners in scoring positions. The Blue Jays have one of the worst records since June 1 among MLB playoff teams, but few teams have been better in the short term results on offense with Toronto featuring an .801 team OPS in the past two weeks. In the past 10 games the Blue Jays are batting .281 with 5.6 runs per nine as this will be one of the hottest lineups entering the postseason. Journeyman Mike Baumann gets the start for the Orioles and while his numbers are adequate in 29 innings this season with a 4.34 ERA, he has just a 5.9 K/9 and has been mostly used as a long reliever in low leverage situations. He has allowed four runs in eight innings in his two recent starting efforts, and he had just 4.20 ERA in AAA in 60 innings as he isn’t likely to have great success to start this game. The Blue Jays counter with Mitch White, a midseason pickup from the Dodgers that has usefully filled innings but hasn’t pitched well enough to have a role next week. While he has had some success the past few years with the Dodgers, the move to the AL has not worked well for his numbers with a 7.38 ERA in 39 innings with Toronto, including allowing five runs while getting just seven outs in a recent start in Baltimore. The postseason bid for the Orioles came up short, but the lineup continues to provide decent production with 4.6 runs per nine the past 10 games even if the offense has had some inconsistency down the stretch. Baltimore’s bullpen has been a sore spot of late and Orioles pitching has allowed five or more runs in seven of the past 10 games. On the season road games for Toronto’s average 9.2 runs per game and Baltimore home games 8.4 runs per game. While there are not meaningful stakes, and key players could rest or be pulled early, that also means borderline MLB caliber pitching will be involved and this is an attainable number for tonight’s total.