Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | Sep. 1

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#951/952 OVER 9.5 San Diego Padres (Vasquez) at Cincinnati Reds (Lodolo) 5:40 PM CT

Last night’s game between the Padres and Reds only featured five runs as San Diego started the series with a shutout win. There were 20 hits in the game however with San Diego going 4-15 with runners in scoring position while the Reds were hitless in seven such at-bats. Only one run was scored with two outs and there was not a home run hit last night in Cincinnati, even with the Reds having hit the fourth most home runs in baseball this season. San Diego is the final team in the National League playoff field in today’s standings, but Arizona sits just a half-game out as the Padres head into September, following a strong 17-11 month of August. San Diego is just 2-5 in the past seven games with the pitching staff allowing 21 runs in the past four games on this road trip even with the shutout win Monday. Randy Vasquez has a 4.02 ERA with a 4.39 FIP this season and with a K/9 of only 5.6 he is a risky option in what should be favorable hitting conditions in an offense-friendly ballpark Tuesday. In a small sample Vasquez has a carer 8.31 ERA at the Great American Ballpark and the Reds have been on a productive, albeit inconsistent offensive run of results. Cincinnati scored 22 runs in winning two of three in Chicago prior to this game and eight times in the past 14 games the Reds have scored at least five runs. Since June the Reds have been shutout 10 times and in eight of the previous nine instances Cincinnati bounced back with at least four runs in the next game. Nick Lodolo has not been able to find success in 2026 in a big step back season from a strong 2025 season. His ERA is 5.24 with his K/9 falling to by far the lowest rate of his career at 7.3. Lodolo has allowed 15 home runs in 79 innings, and his ERA is 7.71 since the All-Star Break, with the left-hander missing about a month of the season from the break to early August. Cincinnati has a 9.41 bullpen ERA in the past five games while both lineups have been scoring, with San Diego posting 8.0 runs per nine vs. left-handed pitching in the past five games and the Reds averaging 7.3 runs per nine while batting .297 in the past five games vs. right-handers.