Free Pick | MLB | Wednesday | May 7

Nelly’s won again last night in MLB action – hitting 70% this season!

Check out tonight’s pick:

#964 Boston Red Sox (Houck) -120 over Texas Rangers (Mahle) 5:45 PM CT

Tanner Houck has rough numbers so far in 2025, looking to follow-up a strong 2024 season where he had a 3.12 ERA in 30 starts for the Red Sox. One nightmare performance at Steinbrenner Field this season greatly impacts his 2025 season line, allowing 11 earned runs in that mid-April start vs. the Rays. The rest of his season has been perfectly acceptable, including a 2.13 ERA at home with a pair of quality starts in his two Fenway Park outings. Texas outhit Boston 16-6 yesterday in a 6-1 win to start this series, but the Rangers still needed to use three of their top relievers to close out just the sixth road win of the season for Texas. The bullpen has been a problem for the Rangers including a 4.95 ERA in the past 10 games. Tyler Mahle appears to be on pace for a comeback season with a 1.19 ERA in seven starts, after making just eight starts in 2023 and 2024 combined. Mahle’s K/9 is well below his career average, and he has had some great early season fortune with an 87 percent strand rate and a .230 BABIP, while yet to allow a home run. Boston is a top 10 home run team in MLB despite being held in check last night, so far hitting 11 more home runs than the Rangers have this season. On the season the Red Sox have scored 4.8 runs per nine vs. right-handers compared to Texas averaging 3.7 runs per nine. Boston’s bullpen has also found its form with a 3.26 ERA in the past 10 games alongside a 1.09 WHIP and the unit was preserved with Sean Newcomb able to give four innings of relief in last night’s loss. Boston has now lost three straight home games and five of the past six games overall to slip below .500 but Texas is just 3-7 in the past 10 games while scoring two or fewer runs in each of those seven losses.