Free Pick | MLB | Weds. | June 10

Nelly’s has NBA (12-7 Finals run) and MLB (3-1 Totals run) picks tonight!

#901/902 OVER 8 Washington Nationals (Griffin) at San Francisco Giants (Ray) 2:45 PM CT

Monday’s game between Washington and San Francisco only reached seven runs despite 21 hits and 16 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Last night these teams reached nine runs with 17 hits but 22 at-bats with runners in scoring position. There were only two two-out runs scored last night but there were nine extra-base hits. Both bullpens had substantial workloads for a second straight game with Washington using five pitchers and San Francisco using six pitchers as Wednesday’s afternoon game could feature some difficult late innings to fill. This is a lefty-lefty pairing on the mound and both lineups have incredible recent splits vs. left-handed pitching with Washington batting .351 with 10.8 runs per nine and the Nationals are 14-6 vs. left-handed starters on the season. San Francisco has had a few huge scoring outcomes this week to bat .419 with 9.6 runs per nine in the past five games vs. left-handed pitching. Robbie Ray had an acceptable 4.12 ERA but his FIP is 5.33 in 13 starts. His K/9 of 8.4 is well below his best seasons and he has struggled with walks and home runs allowed. Ray does have good splits at home in a favorable pitching ballpark and there remains a wind pushing out to center field at Oracle Park on Wednesday. Like Ray, Foster Griffin has a FIP well above his ERA with a 3.63 ERA and a 4.84 FIP. Griffin has been a home run risk as well with a 1.8 HR/9 this season and neither pitcher produces groundballs significantly. For the season the Nationals have had one of the least reliable bullpens in baseball with a 4.58 ERA, but San Francisco has an even higher bullpen WHIP this season and over the past 10 games the Giants have a 7.36 bullpen ERA. Washington games have averaged 10.5 runs per game this season while Giants games have averaged 8.9 runs per game and the Nationals have been a very productive road scoring team while the season ‘over’ record for Washington games is 40-25-3.