Free Pick | NCAA | Friday | Sep. 15

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Nelly’s Green Sheet Key Selections went 6-2 in last week’s Issue #8!

#109 Virginia +14.5 over Maryland 6:00 PM CT

Former Clemson assistant Tony Elliott had an incredibly difficult first season at Virgina. The Cavaliers struggled on the filed going just 3-7 with only one narrow ACC win before November’s tragic shooting incident ended the season. Virginia did have three losses by fewer than three points in ACC play and while the offensive numbers were poor, the defensive numbers were adequate, allowing just over 27 points per game, overall and in ACC play. Virginia’s 0-2 start this season has come against teams that went a combined 19-5 last season as the Cavaliers may have more potential than it appears to be a threat Friday night at Maryland. Starting quarterback Tony Muskett was injured in the opener and appears ready to return to action after missing last week’s narrow loss to James Madison. Virginia led James Madison by 11 points heading into the 4th quarter last week in a game they lost by one point with even yardage for the game. Maryland is 2-0 this season but the FCS win over Towson isn’t worth a great deal of credit while last week against Charlotte the Terrapins fell behind 14-0 and led by only three points into the 4th quarter. Maryland has a huge Big Ten opener next week at Michigan State and Maryland is on a 3-6 ATS run as a home favorite with a 0-2 start this season. This line mirrors the home favorite prices vs. Northwestern and Rutgers from last season, with Maryland splitting ATS in those games. Even in a difficult transition season, Virginia was competitive in most of its ACC games losing by two at Syracuse, winning at Georgia Tech, taking Miami to overtime, and losing by only three against North Carolina. Brennan Armstrong proved to be a poor fit for the offense and transferred as Elliott’s team should have a more suitable roster for the offense this season and Anthony Colandrea threw for 377 yards last week should Muskett’s status change. This is a steep line for this major conference pairing and Virginia is on a 13-4 ATS run at +14 or higher since 2014 and outside of the opener against a nationally prominent Tennessee team, this will be the largest spread Elliott has faced. Mike Locksley’s run at Maryland includes a 22-23 S/U record while 19-26 ATS with losing ATS records at home and as a favorite as well.