Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Feb. 14

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#738 Mississippi -3.5 over Mississippi State 5:30 PM CT

Ole Miss has dropped six in a row to slide to 3-8 in SEC play, hitting rock bottom with a 19-point home loss on Wednesday. The schedule has been grueling with all six losses against top 35 caliber teams, and four of those six games were on the road. Wednesday’s game was the first home game for the Rebels since January 20. Now with consecutive home games the Rebels should be in a better position to play better hosting their state rival. Mississippi won 68-67 in Starkville for the team’s last win in mid-January and despite the one-point final, the Rebels were in control most of the second half and won on the road even while shooting just 10 percent from 3-point range for the game and making only eight free throws. Ole Miss had only five turnovers in the first meeting between these teams and the Rebels currently hold the lowest turnover rate in the conference. Mississippi State is 1-8 S/U in the past nine SEC games, and the Bulldogs have only three road wins all season, with only one SEC road win in regulation. Mississippi State is the worst offensive team in the SEC by many measures, including shooting 3-point shots at below 28 percent while having a very high turnover rate and featuring the second worst free throw percentage in the SEC with missed free throws a key factor in the first meeting. Both teams have been lousy ATS performers and this is a huge game for Ole Miss to break the slide and avenge a 10-point home loss in this series almost exactly a year ago. The Bulldogs have been the best 3-point defense in the SEC allowing below 30 percent but that isn’t likely a meaningful figure as at this point in the season Mississippi State has had the fewest 3-point shots attempted against them. That is in part because the Mississippi State opponents have often been leading, including the Bulldogs holding five SEC losses by at least 15 points. Even with growing underdog spreads, Mississippi State is just 2-7 ATS in the past nine SEC games. Chris Beard still has great credentials, and this group shouldn’t be ruled out as a team that could compete well in the closing weeks after facing what currently has been the #1 toughest rated SEC strength of schedule so far.