Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Nov. 22

Nelly’s has gone 2-1 or better in 9 of 12 college football Saturdays this season – including an over 62% run since late August!

Play 2/3 with Nelly’s on Saturday!

#214 South Alabama +1.5 over Southern Miss 2:30 PM CT

South Alabama is just 3-7 but even with a losing season clinched the Jaguars played well last week to win 26-14 on the road. This is the home finale of what could have been a much different season in Mobile. South Alabama lost 33-31 to Tulane early in the season before the Wave went on to emerge as one of the top Group of 5 contenders nationally. South Alabama also lost a one-point game hosting Arkansas State, even with an 11-point lead in the 4th quarter. The Jaguars also took an overtime loss at Troy and played respectably in difficult non-conference games with Auburn and North Texas. Southern Miss is 5-1 to lead the SBC West in a great turnaround season from a 1-11 campaign last season. That run in 2024-25 included a 35-14 home loss to South Alabama last November. The Golden Eagles are 7-3 this season but there have been a few close calls though a favorable SBC path. Last week Southern Miss had a chance to put itself in a great position in the division race but lost at home 41-14. Braylon Braxton didn’t play for Southern Miss last week as Landry Lyddy started at quarterback, but the defense was responsible for plenty of the problems, allowing 257 rushing yards and 6.6 yards per play. Braxton’s knee injury remains a concern and injuries have depleted the roster on both sides of the ball from the team’s peak form earlier in the season. Even if he returns, Braxton has struggled in his last two road games and if there become limitations on his mobility, it would greatly impact the chance of consistent offensive success. If the 3-7 team being priced near-even against the 7-3 team isn’t eyebrow raising enough, it is also worth noting that Southern Miss just 4-12 S/U and 4-11-1 ATS on the road since 2023.