Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Nov. 26

Free Pick Saturday: #229 Louisiana -5 over Texas state 4:00 PM CT

Texas State has not defeated Louisiana historically, losing all nine meetings, though the Bobcats did cover in the last home meeting in 2020 in a 10-point loss. After winning seven games in 2014, early in the team’s FBS transition, the Bobcats have not been able to turn the corner with the Jake Spatival’s fourth season sitting at 4-7, though with a chance to make it the most successful season for the team since 2014 with a win in the finale. Texas State beat Arkansas State last week on a last second field goal but a 16-point performance won’t likely be enough to keep pace with the Ragin’ Cajuns this week. Louisiana has had an expected step-back season from a reign of dominance in the conference but the Ragin’ Cajuns can earn bowl eligibility this week. Michael Desormeaux has had big shoes to fill replacing Billy Napier but from a 2-3 start Louisiana has picked up nice wins over Marshall and Georgia Southern late in the season while the losses have been competitive outside of last week’s loss to Florida State. Chandler Fields was at quarterback with Ben Wooldridge lost for the season for a big change for the offense, but Fields has played a decent amount and hasn’t provided a significant drop off. The biggest factor in this outcome should be a near-certain ground edge for Louisiana with Texas State one of the worst rushing teams in the nation, averaging 74 yards on 2.3 yards per carry this season. Louisiana isn’t the rushing threat of year’s past but still totals nearly double that average with 141 yards per game and the Ragin’ Cajuns have provided a solid run defense surrendering just 3.8 yards per rush. Three times this season Louisiana has posted a rushing edge of more than 100 yards, and they are 3-0 S/U and ATS in those games and that seems like a possible outcome Saturday, particularly with windy conditions likely to impact the passing games.

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