Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Nov. 29

Nelly’s has a 7* top play going for daytime college football action Saturday as we look to wrap up a strong regular season with another big win! Last night we backed Texas for a nice result to start the weekend!

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#400 Southern Miss -6.5 over Troy 2:30 PM CT

This is effectively a division championship game as Southern Miss and Troy are both 5-2 on top of the SBC West division standings. The winner will head to Harrisonburg to face James Madison next week for the Sun Belt title. Troy has won and covered the spread in four games in a row in this series, but Southern Miss has improved greatly this season. Head coach Charles Huff led SBC Champion Marshall last season, winning tough games down the stretch to earn the title game spot and he has a chance to do that again this season for the Golden Eagles. Troy is only +15 in SBC scoring as the Trojans have caught a few breaks in close games and needed a late flurry to pull away from one-win Georgia State last week, while allowing 516 yards against arguably the worst team in the conference. The Golden Eagles are on a 4-1 S/U and ATS run at home since September and in league play the Southern Miss has scored 29 more points than the Trojans. Off back-to-back losses to surrender a once-substantial division lead, Southern Miss should be a threat to bounce back this week with the division on the line. Troy has been a terrible run defense this season allowing 4.9 yards per rush over the past three games. The Trojans do have a strong road underdog history in recent years but Jon Sumrall’s excellent two seasons in 2022 and 2023 compiled much of that success. Southern Miss has allowed just 4.2 yards per rush this season and a ground edge for the Golden Eagles is all but certain with Troy the fifth worst per-carry rushing team in the nation and the offense has averaged 1.1 yards per rush the past three games.