Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 27

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#201 South Carolina +17 over Texas A&M 11:00 AM CT

Off back-to-back losses and a bye week, Texas A&M should be expected to play well this week, but this is a team that has averaged only 32 points per game this season. In going 2-2 in SEC play the Aggies have only 94 points, or 23.5 points per game. South Carolina has averaged 24.4 points per game in SEC play, but the narrative is one of a disastrous season for the Gamecocks who are 2-5 overall and 1-4 in SEC play. South Carolina has lost by double-digits in all three road games this season, but they faced Georgia, Tennessee, and Missouri, a trio of teams that are a combined 19-3. The Georgia game was very competitive, while a pick-six just before halftime greatly changed the Tennessee game. Last week South Carolina was blown out by Missouri, falling behind 24-0 before late scoring made the result more competitive. That game did follow a tough finish hosting Florida the previous week, blowing a 10-point lead and losing in the final minute in a big game with the Gators. South Carolina’s schedule has been a gauntlet as they also faced North Carolina early this season as this will be a caliber of matchup the team is used to. South Carolina won 30-24 hosting Texas A&M last season as just a 3-point underdog as this is a huge adjustment a year later. The Aggies have wins over New Mexico and UL-Monroe, two of the worst FBS programs inflating the numbers while modest wins over Auburn and Arkansas don’t look like great results with those two teams a combined 0-9 in SEC play. The 15-point September loss at Miami also looks much worse at this point in the season as the Hurricanes are no longer a CFP hopeful as they were early in the season. The Aggies lost by only six to Alabama but the only scoring drive of more than 53 yards came at the end of the game when Texas A&M kicked a field goal down nine and the Aggies totaled just 239 yards in that game while handed 14 Alabama penalties. Texas A&M has just 3.2 yards per rush the past three games compared to 4.0 for South Carolina. The Aggies do have far better defensive numbers in this matchup but holding New Mexico and UL-Monroe to low numbers weighs on the averages. The Aggies are playing with a backup quarterback who has completed just 56 percent of his passes and has four interceptions while taking 10 sacks in 118 pass attempts. Spencer Rattler will never be the Heisman candidate many have expected him to be, but he has completed 71 percent of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt this season, with more than twice as many touchdowns as interceptions. South Carolina’s valuation is at rock bottom right now but the gap between these teams doesn’t seem quite that significant and trusting Texas A&M to get to a number to cover now 17 points is a reach, even if the offensive injuries for the Gamecocks downgrade their scoring potential.