Free Pick | NFL | Sunday | Oct. 12

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The Green Sheet had a great college week with sides 26-17 and Key Selections 4-0-1!

#255 Arizona Cardinals +9 over Indianapolis Colts 12:00 PM CT

Kyler Murray is now expected to miss Sunday’s game the line for the Colts has climbed considerably and will likely close as the largest favorite spread for Indianapolis since losing 26-11 in the season finale as a 14-point favorite with a playoff spot on the line in Week 18 of the 2021-22 season. The Colts have been a lousy home favorite for most of the recent history of the franchise but under Shane Steichen, Indianapolis is 9-0 S/U and 7-2 ATS as a home favorite and both losses were by just a half-point but this is new territory as just the second time under Steichen laying seven or more at home, with the first instance last week’s 40-6 win over the Raiders. Indianapolis was only +21 in yards last week despite a blowout final score and the Colts have a 7-0 turnover advantage in their four wins. For all the excitement towards his career revival, Daniel Jones has only six touchdown throws in five games while mostly playing in favorable game states with a lead. Blindly playing Arizona in every road game since 2021 would have provided a 23-14 ATS record. Arizona was in the highlight reels last week with blunder after blunder to turn a 21-3 lead into a loss against arguably the NFL’s worst team, as a promising 2-0 start has been erased with three straight losses. Those losses have come by a combined total of just five points, however, and Arizona has the 4th best scoring defense in the NFL so far this season allowing just over 19 points per game. Indianapolis is 4-1 with the best scoring differential in the league so far this season but the four wins have come against teams that are a combined 6-14. Arizona has just six turnovers this season but three were last week in the second half in a fluke result. Jacoby Brissett has 19 NFL wins, and this will be a meaningful opportunity with the bulk of his career starts coming with the Colts in 2017 and 2019. His career QB Rating is 84.3, just a few points short of Murray’s QB Rating this season, and nearly identical to the career QB Rating of Jones.