Free Pick | Sunday NFL | Nov. 6

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Free Pick Sunday: #458 Washington Commanders +3.5 over Minnesota Vikings 12:00 PM CT

Minnesota is only +29 in scoring differential and all five wins on the current five-game winning streak have been one-score results winning by eight or fewer points. This is the #23 team in net yards per play this season at -0.5 heading into Week 9, and that is the worst rate of all four teams in a very weak NFC North. Last week Minnesota closed -3.5 hosting Arizona, with US Bank Stadium featuring a meaningful home field edge. Arizona led 17-14 early in the second half but Minnesota scored back-to-back touchdowns in the third quarter with the help of an interception from Kyler Murray. Yardage and per play numbers were very even and the Minnesota defense was on the field for 70 plays. The 3-1 turnover edge was the difference while Minnesota went 5-5 in the red zone getting touchdowns, something that is difficult do consistently. Arizona grades slightly above Washington but Minnesota is now laying -3.5 vs. the Commanders on the road. The Vikings did beat the Saints in London, but they have only played two true road games this season, losing 24-7 in a blowout to the 7-0 Eagles in Week 2, and a bizarre 24-16 win at Miami in Week 6. Minnesota was outgained 486-264 vs. Philadelphia, and 458-234 vs. Miami as the statistical performances in the two road games have been very poor. Washington is now 4-4 and a tiebreaker away from being in the NFC playoffs. The defense has been decent in recent weeks allowing just 18 points per game the past four weeks. They are 2-2 at home with the losses to the Eagles and Titans and they had a 385-241 edge in yards vs. Tennessee, surrendering the lead with just over a minute to go. The Vikings are at Buffalo next week, then have Dallas and New England after that as this is a team could fall back to the pack in the NFC picture and this could be a tougher than expected game for a team that hasn’t proven much on the road this season.