Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | Sep. 13

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#918 Chicago Cubs (Rea) +100 over Tampa Bay Rays (Rasmussen) 1:20 PM CT

The Cubs went 3-4 in March but have not had a losing month since. Chicago has gone 16-10 since August 16 and few teams have been better vs. right-handed pitching this season with a 65-43 record vs. right-handed starters. The Cubs won 6-4 in yesterday’s afternoon game with the Rays, outhitting the Rays 12-5 despite the close score while rallying back from falling behind 3-0 early. Even in the loss the Rays had to use six pitchers yesterday and the bullpen results for the Cubs have been far superior in recent games including a 0.52 WHIP for Chicago relievers in the past five games. Chicago won’t get to play the Brewers again until potentially in the postseason, but the Cubs have a very favorable remaining schedule and have closed to within 5.5 games for the NL Central lead while the Cubs will still face pressure to hold the top NL wild card spot. Drew Rasmussen has 10 wins this season but just a modest 7.5 K/9 and his FIP is more than a run higher than his depressed 2.64 ERA. Colin Rea has a fairly average season line for Chicago, but he has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his last 12 starts. The Cubs are 16-8 in his starts this season including 11-6 at Wrigley Field. While the Rays were still in the wild card conversation a week ago, a 1-6 run has wiped out the team’s long shot chances. Tampa Bay has scored only 19 runs on the slide and the pitching staff hasn’t turned in a start of six innings since September 3 to take a toll on the bullpen. Chicago is 45-28 at home this season and while the ceiling looks higher for Rasmussen over Rea, Rasmussen had a 4.50 career ERA at Wrigley Field and a 6.75 career ERA vs. the Cubs.