Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 4

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#354 Northwestern -11.5 over UL-Monroe 2:30 PM CT

Northwestern is just 10-18 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2013, including a 1-5 run with two S/U losses since 2021 as many may look to fade the Wildcats on principle. Northwestern this season is 2-2 including 1-1 in Big Ten play but are likely to be favored in just two remaining games this season, including this week’s game as topping last season’s 4-8 record will be difficult and this isn’t a game that can be overlooked in the way that a top tier program might look at a Sun Belt pairing. UL-Monroe is 3-1 and the only loss was an expected blowout result vs. Alabama. Next week’s game at Coastal Carolina lurks as more important in the Sun Belt race for the Warhawks and generally this program hasn’t competed well in recent years against major conference foes, including going 13-20 ATS as a double-digit road underdog since 2017. Monroe’s 3-1 record looks suspicious with a -26 scoring differential and the Sun Belt win last week came with a comeback from falling behind early 10-0. Quarterback Aidan Armenta has thrown for just 444 yards on 58 percent completions four games into the season but the rushing attack that has carried the offense with some success is likely to stall playing up in competition. The Northwestern run defense lacks good numbers but they faced Tulane and Oregon early in the season to wear on the numbers. Northwestern had a significant rushing edge in the win against UCLA and while the numbers don’t look good for SMU transfer Preston Stone at quarterback, his career track record can be trusted in a much more favorable matchup. UL-Monroe is 36-44 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2009 and when playing at home off a S/U win Northwestern is 22-15-2 ATS.