Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 18

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#369 UNLV +13.5 over Boise State 2:30 PM CT

UNLV did beat Boise State three times in the 1970s but the Broncos are undefeated in this series as MWC foes, including beating the Rebels twice last season and in back-to-back MWC Championship games the past two season. While the 2023 Championship game was a convincing Boise State win, last season’s game was tight with a 21-7 final while Boise State won 29-24 in the regular season meeting with both games near-even statistically. UNLV lost the turnover battle in both of those games. Both teams are on track to have a chance at the title game again as two of three teams in the conference with a 2-0 start. UNLV barely survived a wild back-and-forth game with Air Force last week, but the Rebels reached 6-0 overall, even with a few narrow escapes along the way and a suspect defense. Boise State has an uphill path to return to the CFP with two non-conference losses, and the Broncos have allowed 62 points in two MWC wins as the defense has not looked at the same level as last season. UNLV looks like a difficult team to pull away from even if the Rebels will allow big numbers. UNLV is gaining 5.1 yards per rush this season, a full yard per carry more than Boise State. UNLV is struggling in run defense, but Boise State is 84th nationally in run defense for a big departure from last season. UNLV also has a top 30 opposing QB Rating against this season as the pass defense has been very effective despite the marginal defensive scoring numbers. While Boise State has a strong history at home, UNLV is 21-7 ATS run in road games since 2021, including going 6-2 ATS as a double-digit road underdog.