Free Pick | NCAA | Thursday | Nov. 27

Nelly’s went 5-0 in College Keys last week in the Green Sheet and we’ve hit 60% since August in our college football releases. We have a NFL release for Thursday plus a 7* top play release available now for the rest of the holiday weekend schedule!

#825 Western Kentucky +6.5 over South Florida 4:30 PM CT

Hank Plona was hired as the head coach at Western Kentucky after being an assistant in the successful 2023-24 season under Steve Lutz. His track record at the JUCO level was amazing and after going 17-15 last season, the potential looks greater this season. In the first big non-conference test the Hilltoppers lost but it was a competitive five-point game vs. Vanderbilt yesterday in the Bahamas. South Florida was much less competitive yesterday in a 12-point loss to VCU in this event. Both teams play at a quick tempo, but Western Kentucky has impressive depth that should be advantageous in this format. Neither team is shooting well from 3-point range this season, but South Florida is much more reliant on 3-point shooting as Western Kentucky has one of the lowest 3-point attempt rates in the entire nation. Western Kentucky also has an extremely low turnover rate despite the up-tempo pace. South Florida has gone through an unimaginable challenge the past two seasons after head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim suddenly passed away in October 2024 as Bryan Hodgson steps into a difficult situation to continue that transition with a roster that has underdone great changes. Hodgson had success at Arkansas State last season, but this year’s team is 0-3 in the three toughest games. South Florida could pose problems for struggling offenses by pushing the scoring pace, but that style suits the Hilltoppers just fine and Western Kentucky is an appealing underdog at this price.