Free Pick | NCAA | Thursday | Jan. 15

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#851 Northern Arizona +3.5 over Sacramento State 9:00 PM CT

Northern Arizona is 0-4 in Big Sky play but they only faced the top 200 caliber teams in the conference so far and all those games were competitive including a two-point loss on Saturday. The Lumberjacks went 8-10 in conference play last season to finish 18-16 overall and this year’s team has a similar potential even with the tough start in league play. The numbers in comparing this year’s team and last season’s team are quite similar as this is a decent outside shooting team that generally takes good care of the ball while the slow pace of play makes Northern Arizona an appealing underdog. Sacramento State is 0-3 in Big Sky play with at least 95 points allowed in all three games. The Hornets in contrast to the Lumberjacks, play at a very fast pace but Sacramento State has one of the worst effective field goal rates in the nation. Sacramento State has produced only one Division I win this season and that was a 64-62 home win vs. Presbyterian back in mid-November. This will incredibly be the first home game for Sacramento State in more than a month but a big boost in success back at home isn’t assured. Northern Arizona won both meetings last season by a combined margin of 28 points, and this is a transition season for the Hornets with former Sacramento Kings star Mike Bibby coaching the team. Bibby has never coached above the high school level as it is a massive leap, and it has shown for the 4-11 Hornets with three of those wins vs. teams outside of Division I. Sacramento State does shoot free throws well, but the roster is also missing Jeremiah Cherry right now. Zach Davidson is out for Northern Arizona for a major loss, but the Lumberjacks have competed well in the past two games without him against Big Sky contenders as this is a matchup the team should be able to handle.