Free Pick | NBA | Friday | Jan. 16

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#527 Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 over Houston Rockets 8:40 PM CT

The Rockets lost by 20 hosting the Thunder last night. Houston is still 12-3 S/U at home and a quality team that will look to bounce back tonight. Last night’s result continued a trend of the Rockets falling from the top tier of the Western Conference however as the Rockets are just 2-5 S/U in the past seven games and just 10-11 S/U and 6-15 ATS since December 1. The Rockets have lost seven in a row ATS and last covered in a home game on December 27. It has been a road-heavy stretch, but the Rockets have also struggled in this series, going just 3-12 S/U and 5-10 ATS vs. Minnesota since the spring of 2021. The efficiency numbers in the past 10 games also paint Minnesota as an elite contender, third overall in net efficiency with top 10 rankings on both sides of the ball. Houston has still been slightly above average defensively in recent weeks, but the offense has fallen to the bottom half of the NBA. Neither team has a great strength of the schedule, but Minnesota has seven top 10 wins this season, tied for the second most in the NBA and this is a favorable turnaround for the Wolves who last played Tuesday in Milwaukee. Minnesota is 6-1 S/U in the past seven games, and the Wolves have won S/U in 60 percent of its road games this season with a 60 percent ATS record as a road underdog. These teams are close in the Western Conference standings but there is a contrast in the recent results while Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in the past three games as an underdog of four or more points. The Rockers are just 2-7 ATS since early December following up a S/U loss as well. Anthony Edwards isn’t playing tonight but neither is Tari Eason, and the Wolves are 5-3 S/U in the games Edwards has missed this season.