Free Pick | NBA | Wednesday | March 18

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#546 Memphis Grizzlies +13.5 over Denver Nuggets 7:40 PM CT

Memphis has lost eight straight games and is just 5-21 S/U since late January. The Grizzlies are commanding massive spreads at this point however and only four of the team’s past 14 defeats have come by 11 or more points. One of those close losses was a 122-116 defeat in Denver just over a month ago in the final game before the All-Star Break. The Grizzlies have also played 13 of the team’s past 19 games on the road for a very tough schedule since early February. Both Memphis and Denver have battled roster issues at times this season and while the Nuggets are still considered a serious Western Conference threat, Denver is 10-13 S/U since late January, going 5-9 ATS as a favorite. The Nuggets are 3-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite since November with one of those wins last night’s 124-96 win hosting Philadelphia. Denver shot 50 percent in that game and made 16 3-point shots and while it was a convincing result with starters keeping their minutes in check, the Nuggets are still facing back-to-back games tonight with travel while the previous game was a high-profile overtime game with the Lakers. Denver is only 4-7 S/U in the past 11 road games and that includes a loss to the Warriors plus a narrow escape at Utah in the last road game playing as a heavy favorite, winning by just three. Memphis has been this significant of an underdog only four times this season, going 3-1 ATS and this will be largest home underdog spread for Memphis since Game 4 down 3-0 to the Thunder in the first round of the playoffs last April. The Nuggets have not played as this significant of a road favorite since 2024 and are 7-15 ATS laying 10 or more on the road since the 2019-2020 season. The Grizzlies have a patchwork roster to justify this price with Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen, and Santi Aldama, all ruled out indefinitely. Denver is healthy now but there is no reason for this game to command a taxing workload and effort from the Nuggets.