Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | April 25

Nelly’s won both our MLB and NBA picks Friday – we’re 9-1 in our last 10 NBA picks!

#905 San Diego Padres (Marquez) +110 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Gallen) 5:05 PM CT

Zac Gallen had a 5.14 ERA on the road this season and a 1.54 ERA at home. While that is a severe disparity in a small sample, Gallen’s career splits display a significant preference for pitching in Phoenix. This is a neutral site game in Mexico City, which features an extremely high altitude, even higher than Coors Field in Denver. San Diego starter German Marquez has pitched reasonably well with a 3.86 ERA in four starts in his first season with the Padres and his experience pitching most of his career for the Rockies could provide an advantage in this opportunity on Saturday. San Diego is 17-8 this season while the Diamondbacks are 14-11 as both teams have had good starts to 2026, but San Diego is 23 runs stronger in scoring differential at this point in the season. The Padres also just played three games in Denver this week before the trip to Mexico as the adjustment to the altitude should be easier compared with Arizona being at home in the past week, losing three of the past four games with the pitching staff allowing 32 runs. San Diego has featured some of the best bullpen results in MLB so far this season compared to mediocre numbers for the Diamondbacks, while the Padres have been the better scoring team vs. right-handed pitching this season by nearly a full run per nine innings. San Diego started the season just 2-5 as the Padres are 15-3 in the past 18 games as this is a team playing even better than the NL West lead suggests and the Padres won eight of 13 meetings between these teams last season as well.