Free Pick | MLB | Thursday | June 11

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#953 St. Louis Cardinals (Dobbins) +125 over New York Mets (Scott) 12:10 PM CT

Hunter Dobbins has been sharp in a small sample size this season for the Cardinals with a 2.77 ERA and a 9.7 K/9. Dobbins had decent results in 61 innings with the Red Sox last season, and he posted good numbers at AAA Memphis. A Mets team that is just 29-38 and 15-17 at Citi Field commands a favorite price in this early game Thursday despite being outscored 16-2 in the first two games of this series. The Mets have been swept in five different three-game series this season while only twice winning the third game of a series after losing the first two games as this isn’t an easy group to trust in this position. Christian Scott has a 2.50 ERA in eight starts, but his FIP is much higher and a 4.5 BB/9 is concerning. Scott has allowed just one home run in 36 innings even with just a 27 percent groundball rate, for something in a small sample size that doesn’t add up as being sustainable. Scott has not completed six innings yet this season and while New York’s bullpen has been decent this season, the Mets have a 4.81 relief ERA the past five games. In contrast St. Louis has a 0.48 bullpen ERA in that span. In the past five games vs. right-handed pitching the Cardinals are averaging 7.7 runs per nine compared to 3.3 for the Mets. St. Louis has won 60 percent of its road games this season despite continuing to be doubted in the market. Don’t rule out a Cardinals sweep Thursday at an attractive underdog price.