Free Pick | NFL | Sunday | Oct. 4

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#253 New England Patriots +7 over Buffalo Bills 12:00 PM CT

These teams have split each of the last three seasons during a stretch of six straight games in the series decided by seven points or fewer. New England is on a 5-1 ATS run in the series, with the only miss at home last December. This looks like a buy-low, sell-high spot in a critical division game. The Patriots are coming off an ugly 35-6 loss at Jacksonville, while the 3-0 Bills were fortunate to win in two of their games against teams that are now 0-3. Buffalo has scored 101 points but has also allowed 78. Winning last week despite five turnovers was either impressive or troubling, depending on your perspective. The Chargers had three of those turnovers in Bills territory and failed to take advantage of several scoring opportunities. Josh Allen has only five touchdown passes, and he’s managing a left knee contusion from a helmet hit late in that game last week. He was limited in practice to start the week and any decline in his performance would be meaningful since he carries so much importance for Buffalo. First-year head coach Joe Brady’s team is 3-0 ATS which may mean the market is overrating an already popular Buffalo team. The Patriots have allowed only 51 points in a 1-2 start, including just 16 combined points in their first two games as New England still has the potential to be an elite defensive team this season. Drake Maye’s numbers have undeniably been poor through three games after a great 2025 season in which he finished second in MVP voting. He committed three turnovers in Jacksonville but a quarterback with a proven track record is more likely to bounce back than keep struggling despite the negative press. A seven-point spread in a rivalry where six straight games have been decided by one score looks inflated. The Bills have been sloppy despite the success, and the Patriots’ defense has mostly been solid, and the defending AFC champions are tough to pass up at this price.