Free Pick #3 | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 17

Check out 2/3 offers from Nelly’s Saturday & Sunday in football this weekend:

#174 Texas -11 over Florida 11:00 AM CT

Florida knocked off a top 10 Texas team last season in Gainesville, posting 457 yards of offense. Both teams are coming off losses with Texas unable to survive the Red River rivalry and staring at ranked teams in each of the next four games after this week, with Florida out of the top 25 despite rising to #8 before the current two-game slide. Jon Sumrall had the credentials of a great hire for the Gators and he may still be, but allowing 39 points to Auburn should have been a bigger red flag for the Florida defense and the win over Ole Miss came in such a favorable set of circumstances following the Ole Miss/LSU game. Florida has the 113th ranked scoring defense and the problems don’t look solvable in one week. Quarterback play is also in the spotlight this week with two costly interceptions from Arch Manning last week. Manning has faced an impossible set of expectations, but he hasn’t provided much more than average results, though in the final numbers last week’s loss to Oklahoma was a true fluke, and featured the highest post-game win expectation of any FBS team that has lost this season. For Florida Aaron Philo has just four touchdown throws in four SEC games as the Gators have not been built to play from behind and the Gators are moving to Trammel Jones today. If the ground game isn’t there, Florida has been in trouble, and Texas owns an elite run defense allowing just 2.8 yards per carry and only 2.3 yards per carry the past three weeks. Florida’s run defense has been average, and Texas could find better balance on offense this week and the rushing numbers aren’t likely to resemble Florida’s edge in last season’s game. Texas is 11-0 S/U and 8-3 ATS following the past 11 losses going back to 2021 while Florida has covered at a 40% clip following S/U losses since 2023. Florida’s win over Auburn in September is the only SEC road win for the Gators since September 2024 and Texas has played one of the nation’s toughest schedules and is a solid bounce-back candidate this week after an upset defeat.