Free Pick | Saturday | NCAA | Oct. 31

Nelly’s has gone 2-1 or 3-0 in eight or our last 11 football 2/3 offers!

#144 South Florida -7.5 over UAB 11:00 AM CT

South Florida is off a bye week, sitting at 5-2 overall but with only one conference win. The schedule has been favorable for the Bulls who lost in the only AAC home game so far. South Florida has scored only 65 points in three AAC games as laying points could be a risk with this group but the defense for first year head coach Brian Hartline has been exceptional. South Florida is allowing just 15 points per game and 4.8 yards per play. The Bulls are limited on offense, but Mississippi State and LSU transfer Michael Van Buren has not thrown an interception and has been efficient in the passing game. Ryder Burton is about 10 percent worse in his passing rate for UAB and he has five interceptions this season while being sacked 19 times. Neither team has run the ball with great success but UAB has allowed 207 yards per game on the ground compared to 151 for South Florida. Road wins have been rare for UAB with a 2-25 S/U and 8-18-1 ATS mark since 2022 while outscored by 51 points combined in three road games this season. A lot has changed for both programs but South Florida won 48-18 in Birmingham last season and there is still likely a substantial gap between these teams even with UAB 2-1 in AAC play while South Florida is 1-2. The Bulls are on a 10-3 ATS run going back to 2023 as a home favorite with only one S/U upset loss.