Free Pick | Friday | MLB | April 21

Nelly’s Baseball is 11-6 for nearly 65% the past 10 days. Check out our 7* Top Play tonight!

Free Pick Friday: #957 San Diego Padres (Lugo) -110 over Arizona Diamondbacks (Gallen) 8:40 PM CT

Zac Gallen had a huge 2022 season but his 2023 has been uneven, with two bad starts and two excellent starts. Against San Diego in early April Gallen allowed seven this and five runs in six innings while generating only three strikeouts despite his 10.4 K/9 on the season. The Padres scored 10 runs over three starts against Gallen last season as well as the advantage for Arizona on the mound tonight may be minimal. Seth Lugo has provided solid results for the Padres with San Diego 3-0 in his starts, while he has a 2.70 ERA. The bullpen advantage for San Diego in this pairing is also severe as Arizona owns a 5.20 bullpen ERA for the season, including 6.41 over the past five games. San Diego hasn’t provided the consistent offense the team expects but the Padres have faced a difficult early season schedule and after last night’s 7-5 win San Diego has scored 18 runs in three games vs. Arizona, even while facing Gallen in one of those games. San Diego went 14-5 in this series last season and the gap between these teams is likely much greater than the current records or tonight’s line represents.

Nelly’s is also 5-2 in the NBA playoffs while riding a 28-13 NBA run since late February!