Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | May 24

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#921 Toronto Blue Jays (Berrios) +105 over Tampa Bay Rays (Baz) 6:05 PM CT

Toronto went 1-9 with runners in scoring position last night in a 3-1 loss in Tampa. The Blue Jays are .500 now at the 50-game mark of the season with a 9-13 road record, but the Blue Jays are 9-5 in the past 14 games including winning four of the past five road games. The Rays have won three of four so far in this series in 2025 but Tampa Bay is 14-18 at Steinbrenner Field this season and the recent splits have been poor vs. right-handers, after winning vs. a left-handed starter last night. Tampa Bay is batting just .190 in the past five games vs. right-handers and the Rays won without a hit with runners in scoring position last night thanks to two home runs providing all three runs. Tampa Bay turned two double plays in key spots defensively in last night’s low-scoring game and the Rays used four relievers including top options Pete Fairbanks and Edwin Uceta in consecutive games, though with an off day Thursday. Shane Baz hasn’t lived up to his billing so far this season with high walk and home run rates leading to a 5.33 ERA in nine starts. Baz has allowed at least five runs in three of his last six starts including three straight home outings as he has struggled in this ballpark with a 6.03 home ERA. In the past 10 games the Rays have a steady 4.20 bullpen ERA but with a 1.37 WHIP, falling short of Toronto’s numbers in that frame as the Blue Jays have a 2.75 bullpen ERA with an 0.86 WHIP in the past 10 games. Jose Berrios has a reputation for having severe home and road splits, but this season his road ERA is 2.70 as he has pitched worse in his home outings so far in 2025. Berrios has allowed just two runs in over 11 innings in his last two road starts including pitching at Yankee Stadium. Home runs are a concern vs. Berrios, but Tampa Bay is 22nd in MLB in home runs this season despite putting two over the fence yesterday. The Rays have lost three of the past four games that Baz has started and while Tampa Bay has fared well vs. Toronto the past two seasons, this is an appealing bounce-back situation for the Blue Jays.