Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | May 3

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#955 San Diego Padres (Vasquez) -105 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Falter) 3:05 PM CT

San Diego had 14 hits last night to pull away from Pittsburgh for a 9-4 win. The Padres have a losing road record this season despite being 20-11 overall but they have faced a difficult road schedule this season, losing the series on the road so far vs. the Cubs, Astros, and Tigers. After a late April slump, the Padres have scored 21 runs the past three games and while Fernando Tatis won’t likely be in the lineup this afternoon, San Diego has been crushing left-handed pitching in the recent splits, scoring 8.1 runs per nine and batting .375 in the past five games. Bailey Falter has marginal numbers in 2025, and his career K/9 is below 7.0 while often being a home run risk. His ERA is 5.73 at home this season and he has been hit hard by quality teams this season with his only quality starts coming against Miami and Washington. Randy Vasquez hasn’t pitched particularly well in six starts so far this season but in contrast to Falter, he rarely allows home runs. Vasquez won’t generate many swings and misses but he continues to be effective enough to get through most lineups twice without much damage as he has just once allowed more than three runs in a start this season. The bullpen for the Padres is among the best units in MLB with a 1.85 season ERA with a 0.97 WHIP compared to an average Pittsburgh bullpen. That unit is helped by having Thursday off while Pittsburgh did not, as even though San Diego used seven pitchers yesterday, everyone should still be available today. While this looks like a relatively even pitching matchup for the starters, these teams are on the opposite end of the NL spectrum and the Pirates are just 1-6 in the past seven home games.