Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | July 29

Nelly’s is 10-2 since July 13 in MLB picks as a great 2025 season continues – we are 4-0 the past four days!

#930 Kansas City Royals (Lugo) -120 over Atlanta Braves (Fedde) 6:40 PM CT

With many expecting the Royals to be dealing the trade deadline, Kansas City announced an extension for Seth Lugo, who had turned in a remarkable run of success in two seasons with Kansas City in his mid-30s. Lugo has dominant numbers at Kauffman Stadium with a 2.48 ERA in 58 innings and he has a 2.38 ERA overall with no losses in nine starts since the start of June. The Royals are just 4.5 games out of a wild card spot in the crowded American League race and Kansas City has erased a tough month of June with a 13-9 record in July. The lineup has scored four or more runs 14 times this month including in each of the past five games while the pitching staff has been effective all season. Atlanta won 10-7 last night to start this series but the Royals had a 12-9 edge in hits while having more at-bats with runners in scoring position as well. Atlanta is still just 7-15 in July, sinking 15 games below .500 overall this season. Atlanta starts Erick Fedde tonight and while Fedde has a good season in 2024 for the White Sox and Cardinals, he struggled for St. Louis this season and was designated for assignment before just being dealt to Atlanta after Grant Holmes was added to the lengthy list of pitchers on the IL for the Braves. Fedde has allowed 26 runs in his last five starts and owns a 5.6 K/9 next to a 4.2 BB/9 and is simply a desperation option as the Braves need to fill innings in the final two months of a disastrous season. Atlanta is just 19-34 in road games this season and the Braves have an 8.12 bullpen ERA in the past 10 games even while getting the job done last week with all hands on deck. The Braves have not received a starting effort of more than five innings since July 20 as the workload for the pen has been significant including using five relievers last night. Lacking big strikeout results, Lugo isn’t often valued as an elite starter, but the numbers the past two seasons put him in that conversation, and the Royals should be a bounce-back candidate after a tough Monday result using their own desperation starter last night in veteran Rich Hill.