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Free NBA Pick Tuesday

#533 New York Knicks +11 over Indiana Pacers 6:05 PM CT

The Knicks have just seven road wins all season long but have been a near .500 ATS team in road games. New York covered in Indianapolis in December before losing the home meeting badly in January but this price has climbed to a steep number with New York playing a fifth road game in the past six contests. New York has lost by more than 11 just once in the past 10 games however including picking up three S/U road wins.

Indiana is 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite of 11 or more points and this could be a dangerous game following ugly losses in back-to-back big Eastern Conference tests vs. Milwaukee and Philadelphia. Western Conference heavyweights are ahead on the schedule later this week and the Pacers are in the midst of a 2-5 ATS stretch the past seven games.

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Indiana continues to sit in the top four of the Eastern Conference playoff picture but this is the lowest scoring team of any of the top playoff contenders for a risky heavy favorite. Over the past five games the Pacers have also allowed over 46 percent shooting and 110 points per game. Tyreke Evans missed Sunday’s game and could be a question mark tonight in what should be a comfortable result for the Pacers but laying this type of price isn’t advisable.

Nelly’s is having another great March with a 14-5 start including going 7-1 the past four days after a 2-0 Monday to start Championship week. Join us for all picks in March Madness to build on an over 64% run since early December, sitting 40 games above .500 since December 6 and picking up more than 35.0* of profit.

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Bobby Dalton hit a 10* last night and is off to a fantastic 17-7 start to March, clocking an 80% Best Bet rate so far in the month. Don’t miss a Trips-2-Win 2/3 offer for Tuesday tournament action.

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#636 Kansas State -3 over Kansas 8:00 PM CT

Kansas picked up a dominant home win over Texas Tech on Saturday to break a 2-game slide but the Jayhawks have lost five of six road games this season with only a narrow win at Baylor in early January. This is always a huge game for Kansas State and this year’s Wildcats team has what it takes to break an eight-game slide in this series including losing all three meetings last season. Kansas State battled injuries and offensive inconsistency early in the season but has turned a corner for a 6-0 Big XII run to sit ahead of its rival in the current standings.

Kansas State has only one home loss all season while besting TCU and Texas Tech by double-digits in the past two home games, holding those teams to just 100 points combined. Kansas State has significant defensive edges in this matchup and should negate the ability to score inside for the Jayhawks. Kansas has also been the Big XII worst free throw shooting team which should be a negative factor for the road team in a potentially close game.

This year’s Kansas team has battled turnovers and Kansas State is one of top teams nationally at creating turnovers on defense and the Wildcats are underrated having played part of the season without star Center Dean Wade. Kansas might still also be without starter Marcus Garrett who missed the last game after already losing Udoka Azubuike earlier this season as this isn’t the team Bill Self expected to have coming back after last season’s Final Four run. The line swinging four points from its release pushes this selection down to a Free Pick level however.

Nelly’s Basketball is 56-28 since Dec. 6, winning two thirds of our selections over the past two months. We had a dominant win from a NBA underdog last night to reach a 21-9 on current NBA run along with a 29-15 college run. We had a huge 31-13 February in 2018 and are ready for another big month – join us for all remaining February picks for $229!

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Free NCAA Pick Tuesday

#711 Providence +3.5 over Boston College

Providence was a 21-win team last season that beat Boston College by 20 in a November home meeting. The Friars played three straight overtime games in the NCAA Tournament, losing to eventual champion Villanova in the Sweet 16. Alpha Diallo and Isaiah Jackson are returning starters from that squad with Nate Watson also a returning contributor taking on a starting role in the paint this season. A pair of talented freshman have joined the starting five to give Providence great size with all starters at least 6’5”.

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Providence is 6-2 including a neutral site win over South Carolina while the losses came in a tight game with Wichita State and against red hot Michigan. Providence has good numbers on both sides of the ball as an effective outside shooting team and a very good interior defense team. Boston College is 6-1 but without playing a top 50 foe yet this season. The best win was a narrow home escape against Minnesota when the Gophers had coast-to-coast travel. Boston College lost to IUPUI while five of six wins this season have come by 12 or fewer points despite playing only two top 200 teams all season.

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The Eagles are an awful 3-point shooting team at below 30 percent while one of the nation’s worst free-throw shooting squads at just 66 percent. Boston College does limit its turnovers but this is an inexperienced squad with three underclassmen in the typical six-man rotation with the Eagles offering very little depth. Boston College lost 13 home games the previous two years and already has a home loss this season as Conte has provided a minimal advantage and Providence should be a serious upset threat on Tuesday.

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#534 Missouri -1.5 over Temple 8:00 PM

Missouri added Illinois transfer Mark Smith this season along with returning seniors Jordan Geist and Kevin Puryear. Cuonzo Martin led this team to 20 wins last season and the NCAA Tournament while playing much of the year without key players and this year’s team has similar potential currently being led by Jeremiah Tilmon who has flourished in an enhanced role so far this season.

 

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Missouri is only 3-2 so far this season but the losses came to Iowa State and Kansas State, teams that figure to be top 25 caliber teams all year long. The win over Oregon State in St. Thomas is a decent result and this will be just the second home game in Columbia all season. This squad has posted good defensive numbers through a top 75 schedule so far.

 

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Temple is 5-1 but only a narrow home win over Georgia stands out. This will be the first true road game of the season for the Owls who played in Brooklyn last week, losing to VCU and beating California, a win that sounds much better than it appears to be at this point. The Owls as usual have a solid defensive profile for Fran Dunphy in his 13th season with the program. The past two seasons Temple is just one game above .500 however and while there is continuity as all five starters were on the roster last season it may again be a limited group with poor outside shooting potential.

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Free MLB Pick Tuesday

#976 Kansas City Royals (Keller) -130 over Chicago White Sox (Covey) 7:15 PM CT

Brad Keller has been a bright spot for the Royals with a 3.14 ERA and a winning record in 17 starts. He has pitched well in five of six appearance vs. the White Sox with none of his starts vs. Chicago at home where he owns a 3.11 ERA on the season. Since August started Keller owns a 2.64 ERA and the Royals have quietly been hitting well down the stretch.

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Kansas City has an .805 team OPS in the past 11 games, scoring 5.1 runs per contest. In contrast Chicago has a .679 team OPS the past two weeks and has now lost six games in a row without scoring more than three runs. Dylan Covey will be making his first start since mid-August after being relegated to the bullpen. In 17 starting efforts he had a 5.87 ERA with a 4.0 BB/9, going 4-10 in decisions. He has allowed 13 runs in three starts vs. Kansas City this season, taking the loss in all three games. The Royals have also gone 9-1 in the last 10 games as Kauffman.

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#920 Texas Rangers (Minor) -120 Over Los Angeles Angels (Heaney) 7:05 PM CT

Mike Minor got a three-year contract from the Rangers ahead of this season despite limited success in recent years and the move has paid off for Texas with a 10-win campaign and a steady 4.33 ERA in 24 starts for the left-hander. Minor is well suited for the conditions in Arlington and he owns a 3.30 ERA at home this season with foes batting just .210 against him.

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The Angels continue to fade from a promising April start and Los Angeles is 18-25 vs. left-handed starters this season. The Angels have some big names in the lineup but have posted a .566 team OPS the past 11 games while scoring 3.2 runs per game and on the season the Angels own just a .660 team OPS vs. left-handers. Texas has posted solid offensive numbers with 5.1 runs per game over the past 23 games and while the Rangers are better vs. right-handers Texas should have an opportunity in this matchup.

Texas scored six runs with 10 hits against Andrew Heaney in mid-August in this ballpark and Heaney appears to be running out of gas with the former 1st round pick listing a solid season line but a 5.55 ERA in his last six starts. The Angels have been held to three or fewer runs in eight of the last 10 games and Minor looks capable of another strong outing to keep Texas on a competitive late season run since early August.

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Nelly’s baseball is riding a 16-7 run since early August for a great late season run. We are also 33-20 on totals this season including going 9-1 in our last 10 over/under selections. Join Nelly’s for all picks for the rest of September for just $129 or play through the World Series for just $199!

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#971/972 ‘OVER 7.5’ Oakland Athletics (Manaea) at Houston Astros (Verlander) 7:10 PM CT

Justin Verlander’s Cy Young pace has certainly eroded in recent starts. While his 2.15 ERA is still an impressive mark with over 125 innings under his belt his xFIP is 3.51 as more regression could be coming. Verlander has allowed three or more runs in four of his last six starts and while his strikeout and walk rates remain among the AL’s best he has been victim to seven home runs allowed in those last six starts. Oakland hit two home runs against Verlander less than a month ago and the Houston right-hander has slightly worse numbers at Minute Maid Park this season.

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Sean Manaea had a dominant April with a no-hitter and while it has been a steady season for the left-hander leading the surprisingly competitive Athletics he has mostly had average results. His 3.33 ERA is overshadowed by a 4.35 FIP and his 6.2 K/9 isn’t threatening. Take out six excellent starts in April and his ERA is 4.76 with a 5.08 FIP and just a 5.3 K/9. The Astros beat Manaea in May and Oakland’s bullpen has displayed some recent wear with a 4.50 ERA the past 10 games.

There are red hot offensive teams with Oak;land 22-12 since June started while averaging more than 5.1 runs per game. On the season Oakland has shown a great preference for facing right-handed pitching and over the past 24 games the Athletics have a solid .789 team OPS with 1.7 home runs per game and 5.3 runs per game. Houston has scored 5.7 runs per nine vs. left-handers the past 10 games while posting a .812 team OPS the past 25 games, averaging 5.3 runs per game.

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Minute Maid Park has been surprisingly low scoring this season but with two quality starters on the mound this is a low number particularly with last night’s 2-0 result. Top relievers were burned yesterday in a game that featured just one hit with runners in scoring position. In 10 games between these teams there has been 100 combined runs as a bounce back for both offenses looks likely Tuesday.

Nelly’s hit an underdog last night now 28-17 since May 28 – get Tuesday’s side play for $15. Bobby Dalton has a 10* side and a 5* total tonight for just $19.99 – Dalton is on a 17-10 Best Bet run while on a 54-36 interleague run!

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#926 Cincinnati Reds (Romano) -130 over Detroit Tigers (Boyd) 6:10 PM CT

24-year-old Sal Romano is an imposing figure on the mound as one of the largest in stature players in the game. He showed some promise in 16 starts on a bad Reds team last season but he hasn’t taken a step forward this season, struggling through 14 starts with a 5.67 ERA for a last place team. Romano has better numbers at home and he has been very effective against right-handed batters with a .225 batting average against and his season xFIP is a bit more respectable at 4.82. He delivered a fine start at Kansas City in his last outing and in six of his last eleven outings he has allowed two or fewer runs.

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Left-hander Matt Boyd has posted a 3.23 ERA this season but his xFIP is actually higher than Romano’s at 4.98. Boyd has benefitted from a .232 BABIP and his strikeout numbers are marginal with a 7.0 K/9. Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher and pitching in Cincinnati that could be a problem compared with his spacious home park in Detroit. Not surprisingly Boyd has much worse numbers on the road with the Tigers just 13-20 in road games this season despite being a surprise team in the AL so far this season.

The Reds have a bullpen edge in this matchup with a 2.92 ERA over the past 10 games in relief innings and overall this season both teams have fared better vs. left-handed pitching to give Cincinnati the edge in tonight’s pitching matchup. Since starting the season 8-27 the Reds have played exactly .500 ball since May 8 including winning four of the past six games ahead of this home stand. Detroit has quietly won five in a row but they did so with light scoring as the Tigers have been held to four or fewer runs in 12 of the past 15 games. Trust the oddmakers and support the small favorite tonight despite the contrasting records for these squads.

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Bobby Dalton went 2-0 last night to make it a 12-4 run the past eight days as part of a great start to June, profitable in 13 of 17 updates this month. Join the Big Dog through the All Star break for just $169!

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#917 Oakland Athletics (Manaea) -125 over Texas Rangers (Moore) 7:05 PM CT

The Rangers are just 7-13 vs. left-handed starters this season and Texas has the AL’s worst team batting average at just .228. Texas has 68 home runs on the season but that is seven fewer than Oakland’s count with the Athletics also seven games ahead in the standings and 82 runs better in net scoring differential. Oakland is a winning team at 16-14 on the road while the Rangers are just 11-19 in Arlington this season.

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Matt Moore is only 28-years-old but the left-hander has seen his career trajectory fall off a cliff the past two seasons, now 7-20 in his last 27 decisions with a 6.02 ERA. His strikeout numbers continue to fall, on pace for a career low at just 7.4 K/9 in 11 appearances this season while his 4.4 BB/9 is difficult to overcome. Moore has a .396 BABIP right now which is sure to go down but even with a major adjustment he remains a below average AL starter and so far he has posted disastrous numbers in his home starts where batters are hitting .340 against him with a .934 OPS.

Sean Manaea hasn’t lived up to his brilliant April numbers but he has allowed four or fewer runs in all but one start this season and he remains a viable option on the mound. His season ERA is just 3.60 while he has allowed only 14 walks in 75 innings of work this season. Manaea has a lower ERA on the road and June has often been his best month in his career so far and he has strong career numbers vs. the Rangers. Oakland isn’t a great hitting team vs. left-handers but Manaea is the more reliable option backed by the stronger lineup and bullpen with the Rangers in a potential flat spot in the first game back at home after a west coast trip.

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Nelly’s Baseball is 7-1 the past eight days with a perfect start to June – don’t miss Tuesday’s 2-for-1 MLB offer! Bobby Dalton has a 10* and a 5* for Tuesday night with a guaranteed Best Bet having won five of his past seven 10* picks and riding a 48-31 historical interleague run.

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#974 Kansas City Royals (Duffy) +120 over Minnesota Twins (Gibson) 7:15 PM CT

The Royals are heading for a very rough season but the lineup has shown some life with a .270 team average the past month, towering over a .237 mark for the Twins. Minnesota held on for an 8-5 win Monday night to open this series despite the Royals having more hits. Three runs came on a blooper double in the eighth inning that proved to be the difference with Kansas City going 4-19 with runners in scoring position.

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Kyle Gibson has strong road numbers this season but he has been consistently mediocre of late and hasn’t won a game since his first start of the season in late March. He has allowed 15 runs in his last five starts and his BB/9 of 4.3 is a concern.

Danny Duffy looked like one of the AL’s better pitchers going 12-3 in 2016 and he was solid last season for the Royals. His 2018 numbers have been disastrous with a 6.14 ERA so far but Duffy still has the pedigree of a much better starter. He has been burned by 14 home runs this season which is much less of risk against this Minnesota lineup and he has made only two of his last eight starts at home as he hasn’t been able to find a great rhythm with his only home start in May coming against the Yankees. Duffy has a career ERA of just 2.49 vs. the Twins with only one career loss in 13 starts vs. Minnesota.

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The Twins have a bullpen edge but the Royals continue to produce at the plate with an average of five runs per game the past seven contests while the Twins have scored five or more runs twice in the past 17 games.

The NBA Finals commence on Thursday – Nelly’s enters the Finals having won four of our last five in the NBA Playoffs. Bobby Dalton won a Game 7 10* on Monday and is on a 33-17 run in playoff side plays!

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Nelly’s hit a solid underdog on the diamond Monday night plus in 4 of 7 weeks this season. Bobby Dalton has won 8 of his last 9 National League picks – check out daily MLB offers!