Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | July 8

Nelly’s is 10-3 in Tuesday MLB picks this season and we’ll take a shot at a big Tuesday night this week with a 2-for-1 Tuesday offer!

#963 Seattle Mariners (Gilbert) +115 over New York Yankees (Warren) 6:05 PM CT

Will Warren has tantalizing strikeout numbers with an 11.4 K/9 but he also walks a lot of batters and struggles with runners on base, sitting with a 5.02 ERA. Warren allowed eight runs in his last start in a huge game with the Blue Jays, and he has only three quality starts all season. The Yankees are 1-5 in July and 7-16 since June 13 and the Mariners are only one game behind New York in the overall AL standings. New York did win Sunday to avoid going 0-7 on a tough road trip but the bullpen has been a disaster in recent games with an 8.23 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in the past 10 games. Seattle in contrast has a 1.93 bullpen ERA with a 0.91 WHIP in that span of games. Logan Gilbert has good numbers in 10 starts with a 3.40 ERA and a 2.99 FIP, posting an even stronger strikeout rate than Warren with a 13.2 K/9. Gilbert doesn’t have a lot of experience at Yankee Stadium, but Seattle pitching has allowed four or fewer runs in 17 of the past 23 games as the Mariners have risen into an AL playoff position. Seattle did not allow a single run in sweeping the Pirates last weekend in three games and while New York’s season scoring numbers are much stronger, the current form of New York makes the Yankees a team worth fading against a starter with elite potential.