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Free Pick #913 Toronto Blue Jays (Kikuchi) -130 over Boston Red Sox (Houck) 6:10 PM CT

Yusei Kikuchi’s transition to MLB has not been smooth, struggling for the most part in three seasons with the Mariners before a similar campaign of just over 100 innings with Toronto last season. So far in 2023 it is working with a 3.00 ERA and a 9.3 K/9 even with an elevated home run rate which has been a consistent issue in his career. Toronto is 5-0 in his starting efforts including wins over the Yankees, Rays, and Angels. Boston won 6-5 to open the series last night with the Blue Jays going 1-10 with runners in scoring position. These teams have identical run differentials for the season at +13 but Toronto has a winning record vs. fellow winning teams unlike Boston. The Blue Jays have allowed 32 fewer runs as well with a clear edge on the mound. Boston is batting just .203 with 2.3 runs per nine over the past 10 games vs. left-handers as this could be a favorable matchup for Kikuchi to continue to pitch well as the Red Sox have only two wins vs. lefties this season. Tanner Houck has rather average numbers so far this season in five starts for Boston and he has allowed at least two runs in every start while making only one quality start. His walk rate is a bit elevated, and Toronto has been a high-walk rate lineup with one of the lower strikeout rates in MLB as well. Toronto pitching has allowed three or fewer runs in 14 of the past 19 games as the edge on the mound particularly in the late innings should be with the visiting Jays even with Boston able to deliver a walk-off win last night.