Free Pick | MLB | Tuesday | May 26

#977 Atlanta Braves (Strider) -105 over Boston Red Sox (Suarez) 5:45 PM CT

Spencer Strider has really struggled with walks this season, but he remains an elite strikeout producer with an 11.6 K/9. Strider didn’t start his season until May, and he owns a 3.00 ERA in four starts while the Braves are 4-0 in those games. Ranger Suarez has done his part as a big off-season pick-up for the Red Sox with a 2.40 ERA in nine starts, even while the Red Sox sit in the AL East basement. His FIP is a half-run higher than his ERA however and his strand rate of over 80 percent and his HR/9 below 0.6 are both figures that are out of sync with his career norms. Suarez has pitched better in his road starts than at Fenway Park and most of the hitters for the Braves have significant familiarity with Suarez with most of his innings in the NL East. The short favorite price for Atlanta does look suspicious with Atlanta’s 19-8 road record next to Boston’s 8-17 home record with both teams coming off an off-day Monday, especially with Atlanta 16-5 vs. left-handed starters this season. Atlanta hasn’t had great offensive splits in the past five games, but the opportunities have been there with significant baserunner counts. The Braves have the stronger bullpen for the season and in the recent splits and Atlanta should be trusted to be able to overcome a road pairing against a quality starter Tuesday.