Free Pick | NBA | Wednesday | Jan. 24

#540 Dallas Mavericks +2.5 over Phoenix Suns 7:40 PM CT

Dallas continues to fall a bit short of expectations this season sitting only five games above .500 after another loss on Monday, now dropping four of the past six games. This home date will be a big test for the Mavericks, who beat Phoenix by 14 points on the road in a high-profile Christmas Day game. With a 6-0 run and an 11-3 run since that loss to the Mavericks, the Suns have turned around a poor start to the season and now are ahead of Dallas in the Western Conference standings. The Suns could fall back to the pack in the coming weeks as this game starts a difficult seven-game road trip mostly on the east coast. The Suns have an average scoring differential of only +1.9 this season and are only 16-14 vs. Western Conference teams. Phoenix has played the third weakest schedule in the NBA at this point in the season and has only three wins vs. top 10 teams while going just 9-12 vs. the top half of the league. Dallas has five top 10 wins and has played eight more games vs. top 10 teams than the Suns for a far more difficult path to create records that are just a game apart in the standings. The recent efficiency numbers are similar as both teams are slightly above average on offense but average defensive teams. The Mavericks are only 13-10 S/U at home, but the home schedule has been demanding and Dallas is on an 8-3 S/U and 8-2 ATS run in this series including the convincing win in Phoenix in December. Dallas was only +4 in that game and is +2.5 now at home. Key players including Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are listed as questionable tonight, but this seems like a contest both would try their best to be a part of, particularly with Dallas playing just one game since Friday.

Nelly’s has a 7* pick in college basketball tonight – 10-4 in our last 14!