Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Feb. 28

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#665 Elon +4 over Monmouth 2 PM CT

Elon is 14-15 overall with two games to go as the Phoenix look to win out to finish above .500. A 1-6 slide since late January has not been encouraging but close losses have been the norm, including an overtime miss and three other defeats by five or fewer points in that recent slide. Elon did win at William & Mary two weeks ago and owns six road wins this season. Monmouth has four home losses and while the Hawks have won six of the past nine games, there are two one-point wins plus an overtime win in that span while four of six wins came against teams rated worse than Elon. In the CAA numbers Elon is the far more reliable offensive team, including posting a six percent edge in 2-point success while also being much less susceptible to turnovers. These teams split last season but Monmouth’s home win as a one-possession final as an even smaller underdog than they will be at home today. Monmouth is 9-7 in CAA play compared to a 6-10 mark for Elon but these teams rate nearly identically in the season numbers in league play. With the edge on defense for Monmouth offset by Elon’s superior offensive results. Monmouth is 3-6 ATS in the past nine games as a favorite and while Elon has been a disappointing team in the CAA and ATS, this is only the seventh time that Elon has been an underdog in conference play despite the losing record, going 4-2 ATS in those previous games.