Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Oct. 21

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#356 Ball State +6 over Central Michigan 2:30 PM CT

Ball State is 1-6 overall and 0-3 in MAC play but this group has been better than it might appear at first glance, as last week’s 13-6 loss while hosting Toledo shows. That was a tie game in the final minutes as Ball State ran the ball well and was sharp on defense. The loss to Eastern Michigan two weeks ago was a misleading result with a production edge for the Cardinals. Central Michigan has four wins this season including a 2-1 start in MAC play. The win over Eastern Michigan was a toss-up game while the Chippewas struggled to pull away from Akron last week. In Central Michigan’s only MAC road game they lost by 25 against a 2-win Buffalo team. Jase Bauer has taken over at quarterback for Central Michigan, but he has worse numbers than Bert Emanuel. Kiael Kelly started last week for Ball State ahead of Layne Hatcher, with Kadin Semonza likely to be shelved the rest of the season to redshirt. Kelly had a tough draw last week vs. Toledo but he has great mobility and will go up against a shaky Central Michigan run defense. Ball State is a half yard per carry stronger than Central Michigan in run defense and has allowed just 3.4 yards per rush in MAC play. The road team has had recent success in this series, but Central Michigan is getting too much credit for the upset win over South Alabama, a game that came a week after the Jaguars had stunned Oklahoma State for one of the biggest wins in school history. Central Michigan is also just 1-4 ATS in the past five MAC games as a road favorite.