Free Pick | NCAA | Saturday | Sep. 20

Nelly’s has gone 7-1 the past three Saturdays in college football and we won last night with a Friday football win as well!

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#336 Western Michigan +14 over Toledo 2:30 PM CT

Toledo and Western Michigan have split the past four meetings despite Toledo generally being the top rated team in the MAC. The Rockets have been double-digit favorites in this matchup the past two meetings but lost S/U at Western Michigan in the last visit to Kalamazoo in 2022, while going 2-3 S/U and 1-4 ATS in the past five road games in this series. There were opposite results last week for these teams with Toledo winning 60-0 and Western Michigan losing 38-0. Toledo faced FCS Morgan State while Western Michigan faced a top 10 ranked Illinois team. The Broncos looked more respectable in the box score than on the scoreboard, only outgained by 154 yards and down just 10-0 after halftime. Toledo is 0-5 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 2022 and the Rockets struggled on offense in the team’s only road game so far this season, losing 24-16 at Kentucky, with Toledo unable to score on offense in that game until the 4th quarter. Toledo was held to just 2.0 yards per rush vs. Kentucky despite boosting the numbers on the ground in the past two games at home. Western Michigan is 0-3 but the schedule has been demanding facing two Big Ten teams plus North Texas. The defense has been respectable, allowing just 31 points per game through a stiff path to start the season and the loss to North Texas in the team’s only home game went to overtime. North Texas beat Washington State 59-10 last week as playing right with the Mean Green and holding them to 27 points in regulation was a commendable effort.