Free Pick | NCAA | Tuesday | Nov. 11

Nelly’s will start our basketball season in the coming days – we’ve had eight consecutive winning college seasons and have hit over 60% five of the past eight years in our selective NBA releases!

#619 Morehead State +29.5 over Clemson 6:00 PM CT

Morehead State already has two losses this season playing two tough non-conference draws in the span of three days last weekend. After a competitive 16-point loss at Wake Forest, the Eagles lost by 39 points while allowing 120 points at Georgia. Now two days later the gauntlet continues playing at Clemson Tuesday night. Clemson is 2-0 but the schedule has been incredibly weak, and Morehead State represents a significant uptick in competition compared to the wins over New Hampshire and Gardner Webb. Clemson has a prominent non-conference game with Georgetown later this week and the Tigers under Brad Brownell are often a risky heavy favorite with a rather slow pace of play. Brownell has been at Clemson since 2010-11 with only five NCAA Tournament appearances, even with great talent consistently in the program. His team had a postseason breakthrough making an Elite 8 run in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and last year went 18-2 in ACC play before being upset in the Round of 64 as a #5 seed. This team is again pacing in the 300s for adjusted tempo and Clemson has been just a 29 percent 3-point shooting team. This is the second season for Jonathan Mattox at Morehead State, posting a passable 15-17 record last year while going 10-10 in the OVC. The program won 26 games in 2023-24 and the dip last season in a major transition should be short-lived. Earning an upset is an extreme long shot but Georgia made 17 3-point shots on Sunday against Morehead State to reach that high-scoring mark, something Clemson hasn’t proven capable of. Dillon Hunter is the only returning starter for the Tigers as this team is going to take some time to find its best rotations and this line is nearly identical to Clemson’s first two games against teams projected to be significantly lesser teams than Morehead State. Clemson was just 3-6 ATS last season as a favorite of 14 or more points and Clemson has been a marginal free throw shooting team so far this season as pulling away to a margin of more than 30 points looks less likely than in the first two games of the season.