Free Pick | NFL | Sunday | Dec. 21

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#121 Atlanta Falcons -2.5 over Arizona Cardinals 3:05 PM CT
Arizona started 2-0 while Atlanta started 3-2 this season but both teams will add another disappointing chapter to mostly miserable franchise histories and neither coaching staff can feel overly confident heading towards the final few weeks of the season. Atlanta did win to start Week 15 last week with Kirk Cousins playing well in a comeback win at Tampa Bay on Thursday. The extra turnaround time could help the Falcons play well in a second straight road game in a favorable matchup. The Cardinals have been a reasonably productive offense behind Jacoby Brissett, but the defense has allowed 40 or more points in four of the past six games as blowout losses have replaced many of the close early season losses for the Cardinals. In the past three games Arizona has allowed 6.5 yards per play compared to Atlanta allowing a respectable 5.3 yards per play for a major gap even though both teams have struggled. Arizona’s defense has been worse in its home games this season as well. Atlanta is 0-2 as a road favorite this season but did win three times in that role last season. Arizona is just 1-6 S/U and 1-6 ATS at home this season, allowing at least 22 points in all seven home games, even with a few favorable home draws. The Cardinals have not topped 24 points at home since the home opener in September. Arizona is in the #6 draft spot right now while Atlanta’s 1st round pick is going to the Rams as the Falcons will likely care less about damaging that position in the final weeks of the regular season. Losing teams as road favorites can be risky late in the season but this situation should be a favorable opportunity for the Falcons to build on last week’s comeback finish.