Free Pick | MLB | Saturday | April 11

Nelly’s is 5-2 in our last seven in MLB – play Saturday’s day game:

#924 Baltimore Orioles (Bassitt) +105 over San Francisco Giants (Webb) 6:15 PM CT

Baltimore went 0-6 with runners in scoring position last night to lose 6-3 to open this interleague series. Even with a strong start form Landon Roupp, the Giants used four relievers to close out the game, surviving a rough ninth inning. San Francisco scored five of six runs with two outs yesterday for clutch hitting that will be difficult to replicate. Logan Webb has a 5.00 ERA so far this season and he is likely to be impacted significantly by the ABS system as a pitcher that thrives on his command on the edges of the zone. Webb also has an ERA more than run higher in his career road starts as his success has been built on a favorable home ballpark in San Francisco. Chris Bassitt is 0-2 with a 14.21 ERA in two starts in his first season with the Orioles but he has been one of the better right-handers in MLB the past decade. Bassitt occasionally has a terrible outing, but he typically balances those starts out with dominant high-ceiling performances. Expect Bassitt to find his command in his third start of the season facing a Giants team that is averaging just over 3.3 runs per game. On the season San Francisco has hit .218 with 2.5 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching. The Orioles have the stronger bullpen for the season and even in a loss Baltimore used fewer relievers than the Giants did yesterday. Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck. Nelly’s is 5-2 in our last seven in MLB as part of a strong start to the season and a 29-11 run in April MLB picks going back to 2024.