Free Pick | NBA | Wednesday | April 1

Nelly’s is 5-0 the past five days in basketball picks. We’ve also started our MLB season following a red hot 20-7 run to start the 2025 season.

#528 Memphis Grizzlies +14.5 over New York Knicks 7:10 PM CT

The Grizzlies have been eliminated from the play-in chase even while sitting as the first team out in the current Western Conference standings. At 25-50 it has been a tough season for the Grizzlies with personnel issues being a factor, while Memphis is only 13-24 S/U at home. Since early March Memphis is 2-14 S/U but one of those wins was on Saturday and the Grizzlies are 7-6 ATS with five S/U wins since February 1 in home games. Memphis lost badly Monday hosting Phoenix but that was a competitive game through three quarters. The Grizzlies are 4-2 ATS in the past six games facing an underdog spread of 14 or higher while the Grizzlies have just eight home losses by a margin of 15 or higher. Two of those lopsided home losses have come recently but New York is in a tough scheduling turnaround, and the Knicks haven’t been playing at their best lately. This is a fourth straight road game for New York, and the Knicks have lost the first three including playing last night in Houston. New York had a seven-game winning streak prior to this road trip, but the wins all came against struggling teams including wins over Utah, Indiana, Brooklyn, and Washington. The Knicks are in the #3 position in the Eastern Conference standings and while Cleveland is just a game behind, New York has a comfortable cushion to stay in the top four and with the matchups at this point unknown, the difference between being #3 and #4 is negligible. New York is just one game above .500 S/U in road games this season while 15-25 ATS in road games including a 1-7 ATS run since early March. New York is also 11-18 ATS as a road favorite this season. New York had four starters play at least 34 minutes last night as the current rotation is not offering great depth. Ty Jerome is likely still out for the Grizzlies as the team works with a patchwork roster, but the effort has been there for this group of players that are fighting for an NBA future. New York’s numbers are built on the sixth weakest schedule in the NBA this season and while Memphis is just 2-22 S/U vs. the league’s top 10 teams this massive spread won’t require the Grizzlies to stay that close.