Point Train | Week 3 TNF Insights | Sep. 22

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NFL Early Look and Line Analysis — Thursday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers — 7:20 PM CT

From Marty at Point Train Consulting

The Falcons have looked worse than expected and are off to a 0-2 SU/ATS start, which means they have around a 12% chance of making the playoffs.

Teams that start 0-2 are in big trouble:

Recent 0-2 teams that still made the playoffs:

• 2022: Bengals
• 2023: Texans
• 2024: Broncos, Ravens, Rams
• 2025: Bears, Panthers, Texans

Championships after 0-2 Only four 0-2 teams have reached the Super Bowl. Three won it:

• 1993 Cowboys
• 2001 Patriots
• 2007 Giants

The 1996 Patriots also reached the Super Bowl and lost.

Comparison Since 2002:

• 2-0 teams: about 62% made the playoffs
• 1-1 teams: about 42%
• 0-2 teams: about 12%

If a team goes to 0-3, stick a fork in them because they are done, Historical the playoff rate since 1990 drops to about 2.5%.

Bottom line: a 0-2 start usually means the season is in trouble. It is survivable, especially in a weak division or with a 17-game schedule and extra wild-card spots, but most of those teams miss the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons

The offense has produced just 16 total points in two games at 4.2 yards per play, ranking 2nd to last in the NFL (only Pittsburgh is worse, which is not the company you want). Will a QB change to Michael Penix Jr. make a difference this week in Green Bay? Whoever is under center probably won’t change the Dirty Birds game plan, which is still “give the football to Bijan Robinson and pray.” Robinson leads the team in rushing with 155 yards and receiving with 99, because someone has to do something.

Atlanta’s defense is allowing just 4.9 yards per play, which ranks 8th lowest in the league. Impressive, until you remember they also faced the Steelers’ offense, so that number is slightly skewed.

Green Bay

The Pack has their own fair share of troubles with a rocky 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS start. The offensive line is a mess, and the running game has completely disappeared with Josh Jacobs out, averaging 3.3 yards per carry (29th). Jordan Love is doing everything he can to generate points with a 7.5 yards-per-attempt passing average and 13.2 yards per completion (4th).

The Packer’s defense has been great in some regards despite missing Micah Parsons, who is expected back mid-season. Green Bay is allowing just 3.9 yards per play, 2nd best in the NFL, but they still can’t get stops in the red zone — 27th in that department, which is like locking every door in the house and then leaving the fridge open. The Pack have the 2nd-best run defense in the league at 2.9 yards per carry, which could certainly nullify Atlanta’s one reliable hobby.

The betting markets are fluctuating at the time of this writing. Green Bay opened -7 with an O/U of 44.5. Currently 78% of the money and tickets are coming in on the Packers, but despite the handle, the number has ticked down to Green Bay -6.5. The total is bouncing around 43.5 and 44.5 like it can’t decide what it wants.

The questions you have to ask yourself right now:

• Have the sharp players bet this number down and then will they flip and bet Green Bay under a TD?
• Could the line move because of the announcement that Penix Jr. will start for the Falcons?
• Is Lambeau Field the home-field advantage it used to be? The Packers were 5-3 SU at home last year but only won by +4.1 ppg. Atlanta was 4-5 SU on the road in 2025 with a differential of minus -1.4 ppg.

We will have a betting angle on this game come Thursday, so be sure to check your email for details.

Until then, have a great week.

Cheers Marty
Point Train Consulting